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SGX Market Sentiment

Yesterday, the Dow close 14 points lower due to continued housing declines and mortgage loan issues. STI is up +10.55 points at this point in time. My view is that STI will continue to slip today to below 3525 due to cautious trading ahead of FOMC.

Wed 27/06/07 11.42 am: STI now @3501 down -24.02

Wed 27/06/07 2.30pm: STI now @ 3489 down -35.27

Wed 27/06/07 5.03pm: STI close @3515 down -9.87

True?

Stock Outlook #4: Fung Choi

25/06/07 8.44 am: Price now @0.725. T.A chart looks promising. Expecting price to dip a little on Monday open. Can enter slightly below 0.725

25/06/07 9.12 am: Now @0.735

25/06/07 9.23 am: Now @0.745

25/06/07 2.13pm: Now @0.77. Close trade? Up 0.045. Good enough for me.

No shortcuts

As anyone who has been following my articles for some time knows, I am an advocate of Wealth Planning. I believe in taking a holistic view in planning your finances, goals & ultimately your path. I am certain to say should I take a stone and throw at a group of people right now, 9 out of 10 would have no clue what they want in life and how to get there. Why is this so? C'mon.Take a little time & think about what you want. Map out your goals & objectives.

One little secret to becoming a top trader

Losing traders often fail to acknowledge and control their emotive process during a trade. Winning traders acknowledge their emotions and then examine the market. If the state of the market has not changed, the emotion is ignored. If the state of the market has changed, the emotion has relevance and the trade is closed.

Diversification

Diversification involves proportioning your money so that it is invested in several different areas. It means not putting all your eggs in one basket. While diversification lowers risk, it can lead to money going into investments that either lose money or deliver low returns.

Some will question the need for diversification, pointing out that if all their money was placed into one great investment, then they would achieve the maximum amount of returns. I agreed, however, this is with the benefit of hindsight. In reality, it is much harder to accurately predict which investments will deliver huge profits in the future.

The benefit of diversification is that it gives you a wider exposure to various investments while lowering risk. There are many forms of diversification.

Stock Outlook #3: Buy China Energy

TA looks good for China Energy.

14/06/07 10.15am: Buy @1.73. Be prepared to exit before 1.80

14/06/07 11.30am: Now @1.76

14/06/07 3.00pm: Now @1.76. Up 0.03. Close trade?

14/06/07 3.20pm: Now @1.79. Up 0.06. Close trade.

Stock Outlook #2: Lottvision

The story for Lottvision looks promising. Now @0.62. This is not a guaranteed winner but one to keep under your radar.

Fundamental Anaylsis:

• Intends to become a regional lottery leader
• Possible foray into India/Korea, beyond current foothold in China
• May provide lottery-related services
• Strong demand for lottery-vending terminals
• Aims to tap into interactive mobile gaming in China

15/06/07 2.24pm: Now 0.635

3 U.S Stocks to hold forever

McDonald's (MCD)
With more than 30,000 restaurants in more than 100 countries, you might think that most of McDonald's growth has already happened.

But that's not necessarily so. For years, while consumer tastes evolved, McDonald's was stuck in neutral, offering, in essence, the same menu it started with in 1955. But that's no longer the case. McDonald's now gets it. New menu items have spurred sales growth, and more are on the way. Look for continued domestic sales growth for the next few years as McDonald's learns to upscale its menu.

Looking abroad, only 3% of McDonald's sales come from Latin America, and only 16% from Asia and other developing areas. So there are plenty of expansion opportunities outside the United States.

Chevron (CVX)
With surging demand from the emerging economies, world energy consumption will continue to head higher for the foreseeable future. So, even if oil prices stay put, increasing production levels will drive oil company profits up.

Chevron, the world's second largest player behind ExxonMobil, engages in every aspect of the energy industry from exploration and production to retail marketing. Thus, either Chevron or ExxonMobil would be a good proxy for the entire industry.

Chevron is favourable over ExxonMobil because it has a 50% stake in a huge deep-water petroleum pool under the Gulf of Mexico. The existence of that pool, potentially the biggest U.S. oil discovery since Alaska's Prudhoe Bay, was only recently confirmed. Chevron also holds interests in several other recent major oil and natural gas discoveries.

Starbucks (SBUX)
Starbucks operates or licenses more than 8,800 retail coffee shops in the United States and plans to grow that number to around 15,000. The company recently annouced its aim to have 40,000 stores worldwide. Starbucks also plans to increase sales by adding new food or gift items to its store mix, as well as developing new products such as ice creams and liquors that would be sold in other venues.

Starbucks has been successful at exporting its concept overseas. Its coffee has even caught on in Britain, where tea is the national beverage. It already has more than 500 outlets there. Starbucks has opened a couple of hundred outlets in China. If the concept catches on with China's emerging middle class, the possibilities are huge.

So there we have it. 3 stocks that command great respect.

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ETFs

Someone emailed me asking on ETFs. So here's it:

ETFs are Exchange-traded funds and comprises of either a basket of stocks or follows closely to the performance of an Index. They behave like any other stocks & are traded over an exchange.

Eg. S&P 500 (SPY), DJIA (DIA)

Advantages are that it provides us with diversification although we only have 1 counter on hand. The diversification could be through different asset class, geographical location etc depending on the ETF purchased.

For now, I advise only buying ETFs on the U.S market as the ETFs in Singapore are still rather illiquid. It is quite pointless should you wish to sell & can't (due to illiquidity) or selling at loss (below Market Price) so as to liquidate it. For those who wish to buy into the STI may consider EWS.

Do you know your Investment Style?

There are a few types of Investment Style. What is yours?

(1) Growth Investing
- Companies that are experiencing tremendous growth at the moment & you stand to gain from their explosive growth

(2) Value Investing
- Simply defined as 'hidden gems'. Buying into undervalued companies.

(3) Dividend Investing
- Investing in companies that return generous dividends to its shareholders.

I advise having a good mix in your portfolio. You stand to gain significantly adopting the first 2 styles especially in times of a bull run, however, counters that dish out generous dividends are usually those that are more stable in nature & able to withstand more volatility during the bad times. What proportion your mix is depends on your own Investment objective, risk tolerance & risk appetite.

The First Line of Defence

Before embarking on the challenging world of Investments, one must ensure the basic essentials for life are met. This meant getting yourself adequately covered by insurance, before channelling your surplus funds for investing. However, the extensive range of insurance plans these days simply leave people baffled. The purpose of getting insurance is that it protects you & your dependents against financial losses in the event of death, permanent disability, critical illness etc. So which do you get? Naturally, this would depend on a few factors such as the phase in life you are in, health status, risk exposure at work, no. of dependables, current total insurance coverage etc. Every individual case comprises of different factors, thus I shall give a hypothetical scenario.

Jack, Single, Unmarried, Working (receiving Employee CPF contribution), Age: 20-30s, Parents are non-dependables

Since Jack is receiving Employee CPF contribution, he has the option to undertake 2 CPF Insurance policies, namely the DPS & Medishield schemes. These 2 policies cover term insurance and H&S (Hospitalisation & Surgerical). Although these 2 plans provide inadequate coverage, I still suggest taking both up. Reason being (a) Premium payment comes from CPF (b) For the coverage provided, premium paid is considered low. To ensure adequate coverage, supplement with other plans such as

1. Term-insurance (An alternative would be whole-life insurance, however, premium paid will be higher for same amount of coverage)
2. H&S insurance
3. Disability Income Insurance

In Jack's case, he may even wish to opt out the term insurance policy as he just started work & does not have surplus cash to pay for the numerous premiums. This is because he (a) has the DPS policy (b) his parents are self-reliant & do not depend on him for money.

Pls consult your Financial Advisor for a comprehensive analysis based on your own needs.

Stock Outlook #1: Buy Ouhua @ 0.605

08/06/07 2.33pm: Flag formation observed. May break near term double top.

Update 08/06/07 5.35pm : 0.635 - Broke near-term double top

Update 11/06/07 8.35am: Ouhua may move north a little this morning. Advise to hold & sell closing to 12pm.


Update 11/06/07 9.12am: 0.65 now. Take Profit? Your call.

Update 11/06/07 5.05pm: 0.63